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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
22	member 3/08/22 4:07PM royalty rates
Big picture question for the field: In 2022, SPOT will do north of $12 billion revenue and 0% EBIT margins, SIRI will do $9 billion revenue and 23% EBIT margins, and IHRT will do over $4... login to read the rest view available tags
21	member 10/12/20 10:48AM Re: Re: Re: Re: https://www.barrons.com/articles/spotify-signs-top-podcaster-joe-rogan-to-exclusive- 20
very efficient for Spot to invest $100mm in Rogan-assuming that is the figure, add lets say 5mm subs at $8/month=$480mm in subscription revenue valued at 5x by the market=$2.4B in market value creation, to say... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
19	member 7/15/20 5:56PM Great call
I was already here and it was so hard to hold onto as it meandered around. Great service - family loves it -and had been bad stock. Then it exploded. I am still there but... login to read the rest view available tags
18	member 6/19/20 4:43PM Re: Congrats 17
Nailed this part of the thesis "I think 2020 may be the year when Spot’s podcasting ambitions, and the potential benefits to its economics, start to become recognized by the market." 2 view available tags
17	member 6/19/20 4:28PM Congrats
Great call. 1 view available tags
16	member 6/19/20 1:43PM Re: Author Exit Recommendation 15
Wait you don't think winning the Kardashian crime podcast is worth $10b on the market cap? 11 view available tags
14	member 5/19/20 6:28PM Re: Re: https://www.barrons.com/articles/spotify-signs-top-podcaster-joe-rogan-to-exclusive-deal-515 12
good point. not automatically awesome. Based on our prior back and forth on the Netflix thread back in September in which content cost inflation was a core part of your bear case, I think its... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
13	member 5/19/20 5:27PM Entercomm a top two podcaster publisher
FWIW for those who are embracing SPOT because of podcasting and the more than $2.5B move today that held from the announcement, it might be worth noting that ETM is a top podcaster too... 2 view available tags
12	member 5/19/20 5:06PM Re: https://www.barrons.com/articles/spotify-signs-top-podcaster-joe-rogan-to-exclusive-deal-5158991 11
How can you just say "good get for spot" without knowing the price? Is original content at any price and any terms just automatically awesome? Fml 4 view available tags
11	member 5/19/20 4:19PM https://www.barrons.com/articles/spotify-signs-top-podcaster-joe-rogan-to-exclusive-deal-51589918890
Good get for spot. Move to original audio content should be good for the business. view available tags
10	member 12/27/19 2:12AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Music Industry Revenue 9
O6I, thinking about the potential market again, you say Spot could command 50% of ad revenues of live music. I guess it might be in line with its market share in streaming right?. So Spotify has... login to read the rest -2 view available tags
9	member 12/18/19 3:34AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Music Industry Revenue 8
Sure, I agree that the multiple will adjust downwards as growth tapers off, just as you’d also adjust for cyclicality, revenue volatility, pricing power etc for companies at steady state. But you can still pay... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
8	member 12/17/19 6:35AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Music Industry Revenue 7
Thank you O6I, You can find my contact details (email) in the Q&A of 2016 Ash Grove Cement idea, I posted them when I was less familiar with the dynamics of the platform. Concerning the metrics, two... login to read the rest view available tags
7	member 12/17/19 4:35AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Music Industry Revenue 6
So the way I see SPOT's real bull case is how big artist marketing revenue can get, because this is high margin top line that flows largely intact down to the bottom line. Based on the... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 12/17/19 2:36AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Music Industry Revenue 5
Thank you for the comments. Yes, $19B was essentially direct selling and performance rights. It does not include live music or the podcast vertical. Concerts would be around $34B now and estimated $50B or so... login to read the rest view available tags
5	member 12/16/19 9:34PM Re: Re: Re: Music Industry Revenue 4
Chipping in here. I'm assuming that the music industry revenue figure you're using is from direct "selling" of music (ie, streaming, CDs, iTunes, etc). SPOT has a 2-step process here. Step 1 is to make music... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
4	member 12/16/19 3:58PM Re: Re: Music Industry Revenue 3
Win, thank you for your answer. But why do you think it is not relevant TAM vs. current valuation? I think this is paramount for any investment. Because if you do not think so, what... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
3	member 12/16/19 9:11AM Re: Music Industry Revenue 2
Hi coyote- I am not sure that is so relevant. For Spot, I think the long-term investment will turn on three key variables: 1) size and sustainability of the user base; 2) ability to differentiate... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
2	member 12/15/19 2:03PM Music Industry Revenue
Winbrun, thank you for the idea. How do you get comfortable with the fact that Spotify's current valuation is essentally the same that the revenues for the whole music industry? All the best. 1 view available tags

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			2019	2020
Price:	116.00	EPS	0	0
Shares Out. (in M):	180	P/E	0	0
Market Cap (in $M):	20,880	P/FCF	0	0
Net Debt (in $M):	0	EBIT	0	0
TEV (in $M):	18,000	TEV/EBIT	0	0

Description

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