SIGA Technologies SIGA
June 20, 2019 - 11:00am EST by
member
| 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
| Price: | 5.38 | EPS | 0 | 0 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 82 | P/E | 0 | 0 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 441 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | -96 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 345 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
Description
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| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 43 | |
I still follow closely. Have no idea why it's down so much. It's been in free fall since its 2Q earnings going from ~$5.70 to $4.20. With respect to getting label expansion for PEP, Hruby... login to read the rest | |
| 42 | |
Why off so much? | |
| 39 | |
Smallpox vials found in a Merk facility:
https://nz.news.yahoo.com/vials-labeled-small-pox-found-in-lab-near-philadelphia-003127682.html
And another case of monkeypox in the US:
https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2021/11/16/monkeypox-virus-confirmed-in-maryland-resident/
I'm not sure what it will take to get the USG to increase the stockpile of TPOXX from an obviously inadequate amount. | |
| 38 | |
I was anticipating anywhere from $100 million to multiple billions (the DoD has a lot of money) until the company put out the 8k. I really have no idea why they felt it necessary to... login to read the rest | |
| 37 | |
8-k filed: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1010086/000114036121031376/0001140361-21-031376-index.htm
any idea sizing of this? | |
| 36 | |
https://sam.gov/opp/3047adad4dea4dff9f69e4f7ce4d766b/view
I still remained confused by this stock's refusal to price in contracts. It's almost as if the money needs to be in the company's bank account to get reflected in the stock price. The Army... login to read the rest | |
| 35 | |
No press release yet but can be seen on fpds.gov website. Clin 0010 was exercised: 363k course for $112.5mm. | |
| 34 | |
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1010086/000101359421000676/siga13da1-081721.pdf
It's a very good letter and I agree with everything in it. Management has not done an effective job maximizing sales of this drug. They explicitly recommended "strategic alternatives" which I presume includes a sale... login to read the rest | |
| 33 | |
https://www.statnews.com/2021/07/20/more-than-200-people-in-u-s-being-monitored-for-possible-monkeypox-exposure-cdc-says/
The story of the man being hospitalized with monkeypox after returning from Nigeria was announced last week. Potentially 200 people having monkeypox is scary. Presumably TPOXX is being distributed from the stockpile for PEP purposes. Hopefully... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
Curious what catalyst you think this needs for next leg higher? | |
| 29 | |
SIGA announced today that Canada will buy 33,300 courses over the next 5 years for its general population. This is in addition to the 15,325 courses purchased by the military (~25% of the total military). ... login to read the rest | |
| 28 | |
I think SIGA is up today on the news that Perelman sold his SGMS minority stake for $28, a 55% premium to Friday's price. Although Perelman's 31% stake in SIGA is one of his few... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
Agreed, the comment that they expect another international contract in the next 6 months was HUGE, far sooner than I was expecting. Also great to see how aggressive they were with the share repurchase. Although... login to read the rest | |
| 26 | |
Great quarter, but I was surprised by the comment on the call that international orders are coming so soon. Wow, does this have upside. | |
| 24 | |
Well, they have 1.7mm courses stockpiled for post-symptomatic cases. Given the extremely severe risks of smallpox, I think the need for PEP is far larger than post symptomatic. The PEP use case requires pills for... login to read the rest | |
| 23 | |
How big do you think the PEP contract will be and do you think we will get a hint of it on the next conference call? | |
| 22 | |
He changed his D for SGMS and nothing for SIGA but I think this public statement was a signal to everyone that his assets are in play (including SIGA). This company would be far more... login to read the rest | |
| 21 | |
Perelman’s MacAndrews & Forbes Seeks Sales Amid Pandemic
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-14/perelman-s-macandrews-forbes-seeks-asset-sales-amid-pandemic
SIGA is not mentioned in the article, but MacAndrews & Forbes owns 30% of SIGA. | |
| 20 | |
Agreed, there is generally bipartisan support for increased funding for pandemic preparedness. SIGA will absolutely capture some of that budget. I continue to be amazed that the stock doesn't price in even a penny of | |
| 19 | |
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-23/senate-panel-told-u-s-must-prepare-now-for-next-pandemic?sref=DGfbsOzc
“Health security is national security, so let’s treat it as such,” Bill Frist, a surgeon and former Republican Senate majority leader, told the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.
This kind of quote and and article | |
| 18 | |
SIGA received an additional ~$3.5mm from the DoD for the PEP label expansion. This money has been spent faster than I would have expected which tells me that getting the PEP approval has become a... login to read the rest | |
| 16 | |
Thanks for the questions issambres. I also like your timing as the stock has only now finally got back to the exact price when I posted this idea.
What I think is an appropriate size for... login to read the rest | |
| 15 | |
abcd, thank you for the update on SIGA and for flagging the company as an opportunity. What do you think the appropriate size of a stockpile would be to defend against a smallpox pandemic versus... login to read the rest | |
| 14 | |
Sorry for the delay, but SIGA announced the final contract with Canada on Friday:
https://investor.siga.com/news-releases/news-release-details/siga-announces-award-first-international-contract-oral-tpoxxr
We already knew the size so the only news here was the pricing. But the pricing was far better than I was... login to read the rest | |
| 9 | |
It doesn't seem that many people are interested in this one, but I wanted to follow up nonetheless. While the stock price has gone down since the post, nothing has fundamentally changed with the business... login to read the rest | |
| 7 | |
https://investor.siga.com/news-releases/news-release-details/siga-announces-canadian-release-advanced-contract-award-notice
This notice indicates Canada plans to stockpile TPOXX. They are paying SIGA approximatley $500k to get Canadian regulatory approval of the drug. Phil said in the press release that historically Canada has provided a procurement contract... login to read the rest | |
| 5 | |
https://investor.siga.com/news-releases/news-release-details/siga-awarded-department-defense-contract-develop-expanded
This is funding to get PEP approval for TPOXX (#2 in my other sources of value part). I think this is a big deal - not precise by any means but it gives an indication... login to read the rest | |
| 4 | |
Discount rate:
My choice of 7% is a bit arbitrary. Maybe I'm too close but I don't view I don't view the cash flows associated with maintaining a 1.7mm course stockpile as much riskier than government... login to read the rest | |
| 3 | |
Thanks for your write-up, abcd1234. Can you outline the sensitivity to discount rate? I know there is much optionality, but why 7%? Maybe investors demand 10% or 12% to hold this quirky stock.
Also, could they... login to read the rest | |
| 2 | |
Thanks for the comment. I very much disagree on a smallpox outbreak being considered relatively easy to contain. I've yet to see any other disease mentioned that would be as deadly as a smallpox bioterror... login to read the rest | |