MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC MU
W
April 15, 2013 - 4:32pm EST by
member
| 2013 | 2014 | ||||||
| Price: | 9.56 | EPS | -$1.04 | $0.20 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 1,030 | P/E | n/a | 47.0x | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 9,850 | P/FCF | n/a | 13.9x | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 877 | EBIT | -512 | 838 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 10,727 | TEV/EBIT | 0.0x | 12.8x | |||
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| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 87 | |
I believe the Japanese wafer companies are acting rational and only adding capacity to meet demand of approximately 4-5% annually. This is based on the clear public messaging all the vendors have made. Demand has... login to read the rest | |
| 84 | |
I still think MU is undervalued, but i think there are more attractive risk/returns in the sector, such as semiconducter wafer companies. | |
| 83 | |
Any color here? Thanks! | |
| 80 | |
Hi Aviclara/Biffins/Nychrg,
Given your deep expertise on Micron - it would be very interesting to hear what is your latest view on the name following the sharp correction last week. Is it "time to buy when blood is | |
| 73 | |
On mu, and sk Hynix and inotera for that matter? I have had my head handed to me on a certain biotech stock I recommended here and am trying to rebuild. I just started looking... login to read the rest | |
| 72 | |
I'd also point you to this commentary:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2553275-microchip-technology-ceo-flubs-a-warning-announcement
The author is in the minority on Seeking Alpha, that is, he isn't a financial clown (like most of us), but is actually a guy with deep semi industry | |
| 71 | |
rh121,
I agree. It's one data point. I'll throw out a couple of other, more favorable, data points. Aggregate North American based semiconductor industry reported book-to-bill of 1.07 in Jul and 1.04 in Aug. So, unless... login to read the rest | |
| 62 | |
It goes without saying that you’ve been very, very right on pricing / supply discipline in the memory market for the last 18 months, so I at least appreciate your continued activity on this thread.
One... login to read the rest | |
| 59 | |
agree on SIMO. | |
| 54 | |
Our understanding based on the company's public comments is going forward they will issue bonds and not converts...they used converts in the past given the low cash interest requirements and lack of covenants, reflecting the... login to read the rest | |
| 52 | |
I am super excited about Micron for 2014. the quarter was excellent - .85 cents of earnings and the guidance for the next quarter, as i calculate it, is in the .70 - .80 cent range. The... login to read the rest | |
| 51 | |
aviclara,
Thanks for the thoughful write-up and follow up comments. Do you have any updates thoughts you can share post earnings? | |
| 50 | |
aviclara,
Can i trouble you for updated thoughts on earnings and capex? 1Q14 run-rate was just over $3, but this was apparently somewhat helped by selling down inventory. If i followed this correctly, current DRAM87 prices... login to read the rest | |
| 49 | |
Looks like the Korean did not copy properly, but you can find the disclosure here:
http://engkind.krx.co.kr/common/disclsviewer.do?method=search&acptNo=20131218000210&docno=&formProcsCd=070&language=english | |
| 48 | |
We believe that the reports overnight of Hynix building a new DRAM fab are not being interpreted correctly and the subsequent price action this AM (down ~8% currently) is far over-blown. Hynix filed the statement... login to read the rest | |
| 46 | |
not bearish, i said i like nand, just not as much as dram. the reason is in the dram market, all participants can switch between dram and nand, allowing for lower volatility (if prices swoon... login to read the rest | |
| 44 | |
i think the cheapest is Inotera, but not very liquid, followed by MU, Samsung, Hynix, SNDK and toshiba.
On MU vs. hynix, hynix has two disadvantages - MU and hynix now have the same EV, but... login to read the rest | |
| 42 | |
they have been selling since $9 a share. They have seen the historic volatility in the business, and want to lock in gains. I feel confident i have a better perspective on the future business | |
| 39 | |
the earnings were messy but did beat relative to consensus 29 cents vs 23 cents. The only reason I can attribute to the decline in the stock price was to the lighter numbers from elpida... login to read the rest | |
| 38 | |
Hi aviclara.
Any thoughts on last night's earnings. I'm a bit surprised by the market reaction to the $.05 earnings miss. Maybe just some profit taking. With the exception of Wells Fargo, analysts seemed to generally... login to read the rest | |
| 37 | |
only in the DRAM industry would someone talk about how increasing capital intensity is a good thing. I rather own semi equipment companies like AMAT and ASML than MU at this point. | |
| 36 | |
There are a few key differences between the glass business for LCD and the memory space...
1) Memory supply growth is constrained by the physical limits of Moore's law slowing...incremental capacity (both new fabs and tech... login to read the rest | |
| 35 | |
i did not see that in the article you posted. is it new wafer starts or shifts from mobile back to PC? | |
| 33 | |
Here's an article from this morning's Digitimes saying that Samsung is likely to increase PC DRAM due to the Hynix fire.
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130913PD201.html
| |
| 32 | |
It is hard for me to judge what the market will be willing to pay but i do think 5 or 6x is too low. I am closer to $4 of earnings for 2014 and i... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
i agree that peak eps power can be $3+. for whatevery it is worth, the issue i have with this idea over the next 12 months is that even if the industry has really structurally... login to read the rest | |
| 30 | |
The full implications of the hynix fire are still unknown, but the key takeaway is that the plant is 13% of total DRAM capacity, but more importantly, over 30% of total PC DRAM capacity. To... login to read the rest | |
| 29 | |
one correction, i think samsung was talking about their own products launching with 2G, not Apple. Apple is probably still at 1G this year and 2 G next year. | |
| 28 | |
Seems as though everyone is negative on memory. The peak is here and there is no new normal. I am going to try and address the issues that have been raised recently and highlight why... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
This is a structural change...the market's focus on near term data points this week (like the PC DRAM spot price) and rumors out of the supply chain / Semicon West is inconsistent with the underlying trends:
Spot Price... login to read the rest | |