Level 3 LVLT

December 30, 2004 - 4:21pm EST by

member

						2004	2005
Price:		3.40		EPS
Shares Out. (in M):		0		P/E
Market Cap (in $M):		2,350		P/FCF
Net Debt (in $M):		0		EBIT		0	0
TEV (in $M):		0		TEV/EBIT

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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
8	member 2/22/05 9:28AM Another rabbit
LVLT is issuing 880m of 10% senior convertibles with a 3.60 strike. Gives them 1.66b cash, more than enough to last to YE08 per my original thesis. I was wrong about management finally seeing the view available tags
7	member 2/14/05 12:55PM re: cash burn
I think we agree logically. We differ on communication EBITDA as I don't think they will hit 400 mil for 2005. Keep in mind that they have a history of providing guidance early in the year... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 2/11/05 1:13PM Re: Cash burn
"Based on the numbers and projections they gave, I would assume true core EBITDA will be close to 275 mil" I get 400m Communications EBITDA, with 125m termination. That's 275m, but there's also 50-75m of non-communications... login to read the rest view available tags
4	member 2/10/05 4:34PM Cash flow (burn)
I actually think this company will burn through more than they are forecasting for the year. They are pointing to a decline in revenue with an increase in termination (non-cash and 100% margin revenue). Based... login to read the rest view available tags
3	member 2/10/05 10:15AM Re: Don't give up
"What were your odds previously on LVLT Ch. 11 this year?" Maybe 5%. "what on the call made you change your tune?" The overall tone. The press release, too. They still speak optimistically of new services and... login to read the rest view available tags
1	member 2/09/05 11:35AM Weak guidance - close position
I have changed my thesis. I now give even odds to a Chapter 11 filing this year. That would produce a loss for this position, as such I recommend you close it now. With the... login to read the rest view available tags

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