CALUMET SPECIALTY PRODS -LP CLMT
W
March 30, 2020 - 6:17pm EST by
member
| 2020 | 2021 | ||||||
| Price: | 70.00 | EPS | 0 | 0 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 77 | P/E | 0 | 0 | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 84 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 1,225 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 1,300 | TEV/EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
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Description
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| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 37 | |
RMJ
I am hearing two dual sales processes for Great Falls and Branded Lubricants are proceeding. 1H 2021 is my expectation for at least one sale.
I would prefer to see Branded Lubricants sell first cause it... login to read the rest | |
| 36 | |
Puppyeh
Biden has been very good for rail. Shutting Keystone will move significant wcs to rail. Oil in the $50-$60 range also makes wcs very profitable.
I have been hearing a lot of chatter on using... login to read the rest | |
| 35 | |
bruno - if Biden kills keystone XL, am I right in concluding that WCS remains 'stranded'; the differential vs WTI will widen; and this will benefit Great Falls structurally (given the feedstock advantage)?
thanks | |
| 34 | |
Hi Bruno - curious if you have come across any developments on the sales processes? thanks in advance. | |
| 33 | |
https://vimeo.com/447149569/fe0523c850
The video is about organizational change at Heritage Group - the GP.
CLMT is a legacy investment of the former a heritage ceo. His daughter is more focused on venture stuff.
Once branded and great falls is... login to read the rest | |
| 32 | |
Rjm
I expect something to happen on branded in next 6 months.
There are dozens (multiple dozen) NDA signed and parties in talks for branded. I agree with Todd - forty plus interested parties. If branded performed... login to read the rest | |
| 31 | |
Puppyeh
There is 750 mil. of debt that can be retired at par in 2024.
If Clmt sells both performance and great falls for $1100-1200 mil.
Then $475 mil. goes to pay off 2022 and 2023.
The residual cash... login to read the rest | |
| 30 | |
Todd there are a ton of makewholes on the debt so your Total Co value is >100mm too generous to the equity (since if/when they sell Branded + GF they can't just take out the... login to read the rest | |
| 29 | |
What is your feeling as to when step 1 and step 2 can and actually will be consummated? This seems like an incredible time to be involved if we are truly in the early to... login to read the rest | |
| 28 | |
Thanks Bruno, you're correct on the remainco EBITDA (mgmt also noted that Branded likely has ~5MM of SG&A, ~30MM for Great Falls which means remainco left w/ ~50 - 55MM of SG&A). See math below,... login to read the rest | |
| 27 | |
Todd and others
I think your remain-co ebitda number is lower than mine. I think remain-co is $150 mil ish in ebitda. I think on a take out it is worth 8x or $15 per share.
I... login to read the rest | |
| 25 | |
Interesting pts and time will tell on which strategics step up to play on the Branded front (all PE firms will talk down the value, but they are probably not going to be in the... login to read the rest | |
| 23 | |
Spent quite a bit of time with the management team and our views are as follows: 1) new CEO (Steve) has been given the green light to “act” on deleveraging the BS, providing more transparency... login to read the rest | |
| 22 | |
Todd
A friend of mine had a one on one with Steve Mawer at DB leverage finance conference.
Steve said on the lubes business
- there have been a lot of inbound calls on the segment
- Clmt... login to read the rest | |
| 20 | |
Puppyeh:
I don't think clmt would sell at the price mentioned in the story.
I have these assets around $50 mil in ebitda. I don't see clmt selling them for 10x. I can see these assets transacting... login to read the rest | |
| 19 | |
Are we sure this is good news? Lubricants (Belray/TruFuel/Royal Purple) is the jewel, I had previously thought at least 1/3 of specialty EBITDA came from here and was compounding at teens, with dominant market positions.... login to read the rest | |
| 18 | |
Calumet Is Said to Mull $500 Million Sale of Lubricants Division2020-10-01 19:28:43.196 GMTBy Kiel Porter(Bloomberg) -- Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP, aproducer of hydrocarbon products, is considering a sale of itsfinished lubricants business, which is... login to read the rest | |
| 17 | |
Happy hunting
“Regarding converting to a C-Corp. Under the current GP / LP structure an activist can’t do anything - so there are none. If CLMT converted to a C-Corp it would be an immediate sh*tshow... login to read the rest | |
| 15 | |
happyhunting
“One guy told me that Mawer's appointment was a telltale sign that things were going to change. Mawer has no financial and operational experence, is very wealthy and retired. If you were to pick a... login to read the rest | |
| 14 | |
Puppyeh
I think around $15-$20 of SG&A cost maybe goes with Great Falls. Not a lot.
Covid will force a lot more cuts to a SG&A than anything else.
I expect them to reduce SG&A after Great Falls to... login to read the rest | |
| 13 | |
Happy hunter
- CLMT was founded by Fred Fehsenfeld and Bill Grube. Bill was the brains, Fred the money and things were generally good until Bill got sick in 2011
Yes Grube came to Fred in the... login to read the rest | |
| 12 | |
Happy hunter
I will provide some detailed answer over next few days as these are substantial question.
Your insider sounds awful lot like West Griffin the former cfo.
If it is West Griffin keep in mind few... login to read the rest | |
| 10 | |
Bruno - thanks for your yeoman's work on this name. One thing that continues to trouble me is the cost dissynergy associated with the MLP/GP structure post GF sale. If you think Great Falls really... login to read the rest | |
| 8 | |
Todd
Some additional thoughts
My view after talking to industry participants, bankers and people close to the sales process is that the sale process is real and progressing. I don’t talk to the company anymore. My interaction with the... login to read the rest | |
| 7 | |
Todd
I expect Great Falls asset sale between November 2020 and 1H 2021.
The election matters as Biden would be positive for Great Falls asset sales process. Biden (and more the progressive democratic agenda) would insure that new... login to read the rest | |
| 6 | |
Bruno - Any updated thoughts on the Great Falls sales process? I'm sure COVID remains an overhang on site visits, etc., but it sounds like there has been decent interest, and it seems like a... login to read the rest | |
| 5 | |
Bonds have moved up close to 30 points and are now a carry trade.
There is an expectation in the bonds of an asset sale for Great Falls refinery in 2H 2020. The commentary from... login to read the rest | |
| 4 | |
Todd
Tim Go joining HFC in July as COO while serving as CEO on CLMT till June 1 boggles the mind. This seems like something out of the twilight zone where the CEO of a company in... login to read the rest | |
| 2 | |
Todd
My valuation of Great Falls Asset
25,000 barrels but it is 30,000 in 2 years.
Asphalt cut is approximately 37.5%
Refined products approximately 62.5%
2-1-1 Crack Spread best indicative crack for refined product
WCS spread $15 - rail break even... login to read the rest | |