Description

Sign up or Log In

Sign up for free guest access to view investment ideas with a 45-day delay and read the full report.

Log in to read the full report.

show sort by

You are not eligible to view 5 messages. To gain access to more recent message posts signup free for membership.

#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
25	member 11/19/21 3:39PM Re: What is going on with HTZ vs. CAR? 24
Watching with interest as well. It seems both have non-fundamental forces working in their respective directions. CAR was meme'd; heavy short interest, good numbers and off to the ridiculous races. Meme stocks appear to hold a... login to read the rest view available tags
22	member 11/02/21 10:30PM Re: Re: Its not EBITDA 21
Sid, the $241mm gain on sale is for YTD and the number in Q3 is $152mm. It's not a small number but it's not "the" main contributor of them hitting $1bn+ EBITDA this quarter, so that's... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
21	member 11/02/21 9:52PM Re: Its not EBITDA 15
Based on the 10Q released today, $241 booked as EBITDA came from gains on sales of used cars. The cars they are buying now are more expensive and this gain will go away. Potentially if... login to read the rest view available tags
20	member 11/02/21 8:20PM Re: incredible unit economics progression despite some of it is "fake/made-up" fleet cost assumptions, 19
That's some fun analysis Chalk. Thanks. One pointer - you probably shouldn't annualize 3Q because it's a seasonal business. So valuation is much higher than 8x in a blue sky scenario. 1 view available tags
19	member 11/02/21 7:06PM incredible unit economics progression despite some of it is "fake/made-up" fleet cost assumptions
Not involved either way, but fascinated by what's going on, so did this exercise:Each car in Americas fleet used (pre-COVID) to make $1,300 of EBITDA (post fleet cost / vehicle depreciation but before non-vehicle depreciation)... login to read the rest 7 view available tags
18	member 11/02/21 11:10AM I used to say investing was the most humbling business...
Now I think it might be the most humiliating one. 30 view available tags
17	member 10/27/21 3:52PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Valuation is insane 14
I searched around for this name on r/wallstreetbets and was actually pretty surprised not to find much. A couple posts with little traction walking through [$6 Q2 2021 EPS * 4 * 12 P/E] though :) view available tags
16	member 10/21/21 2:31PM Re: Its not EBITDA 15
This is the key point. Avis costs are actually going up and this is a one time gain just as there will be a big one time loss when prices revert. "Investors" are capitalizing it view available tags
15	member 10/20/21 9:38PM Its not EBITDA
A major thing that people are doing is taking the reduced fleet costs that come from selling cars purchased in cheaper times at higher used car prices. Basically, I think Avis (and Hertz) are taking... login to read the rest 5 view available tags
14	member 10/20/21 3:40PM Re: Re: Re: Valuation is insane 12
I don't think Avis doubled over the past few weeks on scarcity of cars. The stock gets gunned up in the am and then holdes/fades a bit. Feels like manipulation. no not the kind the... login to read the rest view available tags
13	member 10/20/21 2:54PM Re: Re: Re: Valuation is insane 12
Car's largests cost is way up. The ability to pass through and earn super gross margin dollars remains to be seen. view available tags
12	member 10/20/21 2:33PM Re: Re: Valuation is insane 11
appreciate the kind words, if only I had the courage to profit from it - sigh -. I agree, seems way overdone here, own vertical put spreads in my p.a. and have been adding to... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
11	member 10/20/21 1:21PM Re: Valuation is insane 10
Cudos to orion for nailing the supply demand picture. Still, its the same challenged so so business it always has been with Tauro and Sxity and other new entratns on the way.. Seriously don't get... login to read the rest view available tags
9	member 9/28/21 8:59AM Any Update?
Sidhardt - any update here? Is this a better short today, or has something changed your view? view available tags
8	member 6/11/21 9:59AM Did CAR go Meme
I see no news to justify a $5 move view available tags
7	member 4/09/21 3:11PM Re: Re: Re: Contra Opinion 6
i rented a car from HTZ for the summer Jun15 -Aug 15 for $1,400 including all taxes (not insurance) picking up in new Jersey. Doesn't sound like a shortage crisis to me. althought there are 1 view available tags
6	member 4/09/21 9:08AM Re: Re: Contra Opinion 5
Thanks for the exchange. I understand your points and can't provide concrete evidence to refute them. My last rebuttal - historical elasticity for leisure is going to be less relevant in 2021. I don't think consumers... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
5	member 4/08/21 9:13AM Re: Contra Opinion 3
Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley has some thoughts this morning on your Thoughts. He wrote: "Car rental companies should experience extremely low fleet depreciation coupled with potentially extraordinary pricing/RPD creating ‘golden era’ conditions for car rental." And... login to read the rest view available tags
4	member 4/07/21 11:31PM Re: Contra Opinion 3
I take your point. I too believe that the Semi shortage will be an issue, and I expect OEMs to favor higher margin vehicles, i.e. not fleet sales. I also expect business travel to resume... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
2	member 4/06/21 9:06PM Re: Market share 1
Anecdotally, I have heard that Avis has taken market share...of what little business there has been which has been mostly leisure travel. The big leagues are when business travel resumes so I am not sure view available tags
1	member 4/06/21 6:10PM Market share
Thanks for the write up. Do you have any views on market share shifts post covid? Did Hertz lose market share due to the bankruptcy that could mean Avis earnings structurally higher when things recover? view available tags

load more messages

			2021	2022
Price:	76.00	EPS	-.075	3.75
Shares Out. (in M):	70	P/E	NA	20
Market Cap (in $M):	5,300	P/FCF	70	19
Net Debt (in $M):	3,500	EBIT	469	788
TEV (in $M):	8,800	TEV/EBIT	19	11
Borrow Cost:	Available 0-15% cost

Description

Sign up or Log In

Sign up for free guest access to view investment ideas with a 45-day delay and read the full report. Log in to read the full report.

Sign up for free guest access to view investment ideas with a 45-day delay and read the full report.

Log in to read the full report.