API Group Corp JJAQF
October 17, 2019 - 10:11pm EST by
member
| 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
| Price: | 9.90 | EPS | 1.14 | 1.32 | |||
| Shares Out. (in M): | 174 | P/E | 8.7x | 7.5x | |||
| Market Cap (in $M): | 1,722 | P/FCF | 10.1x | 8.2x | |||
| Net Debt (in $M): | 1,250 | EBIT | 0 | 0 | |||
| TEV (in $M): | 2 | TEV/EBIT | 9.3x | 8.4x | |||
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Description
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| # | AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT |
|---|---|
| 65 | |
As Munger says, Never understimate the power of a particular incentive. Every $1 between now and yearend = $28M on the Founder Preferred. Not throwing shade on the Buyback just an observation. I've been long... login to read the rest | |
| 64 | |
APG announced a $100mm buyback authorization today. Said the authorization reflects their "confidence in the resiliency, growth prospects, and strong cash flow generation of the business." Also added it does not preclude them from pursuing additional... login to read the rest | |
| 63 | |
Another strong quarter with a beat and raise. FCF generation YTD confirmed at record levels and 2021 estimates looking too conserative.
FY guidance is now for $3.475bn-$3.525bn in revenues vs $3.4bn-$3.5bn previously and current FY consensus... login to read the rest | |
| 62 | |
I think the algorithm has pieces of everything you mentioned.
Historically, APG has done mostly local/regional bolt-on acquisitions at low prices as you mentioned. A large part of that is indeed valuation arbitrage, buying these companies... login to read the rest | |
| 61 | |
Hi - appologies if this has been covered.
Is there a general M&A Algorithm here? Does their scale or something else allow them to take out alot of cost or build up alot of revenue synergies. If... login to read the rest | |
| 59 | |
DYCOM an inferior business to API was up 7 percent yesterday.
APG did an accretive transaction that improved business mix and established a new platform overseas and the stock is up 4 percent.
The Company also "pre-announced"... login to read the rest | |
| 58 | |
APG has announced the acquisition of SK FireSafety Group in Europe, as well as 3 undisclosed US based Safety Services and Specialty Services companies. This begins APG's inorganic growth opportunity. They are paying $300mm via... login to read the rest | |
| 57 | |
So couple interesting facts outlined in the PR:
1. Cash was 470 as of 9/30 - Almost 100 mm of CF generated in 3Q
2. They bought 200 MM of sales in Fire Safety with 13+% EBITDA... login to read the rest | |
| 56 | |
Long time executive BUYS $1mm of stock post qtr at basically these levels. Insiders sell for a "million and one" reasons but only buy for one.
Paul Grunau sold his family company many years ago to | |
| 55 | |
CTAS trades 2.5 pct FCF yield. The inferior "construction" comps trade 5 percent.
Back of the envelope math:
20x 300m of FCF is 6 BN. Zero value to DTA or Amortization of Intangibles Tax Shield. 6,000 /... login to read the rest | |
| 54 | |
Will come back with some more thoughts later, but appears to be a very strong quarter and guide in light of the impacts of COVID-19. FY20 adj net revenue guidance of $3.45bn at the midpoint... login to read the rest | |
| 53 | |
Price target raises and new initiation at 16 by Baird. Low numbers and higher mutliple sets up for nice beat and raise. Not sure what gives here. | |
| 52 | |
API officially made the Russell 2000 list on friday. Approximately 18 mm to buy. That is many days volume at this point. Remember, the Company will also be added to other indices over the next... login to read the rest | |
| 51 | |
Thought the quarter was very strong verse expectations. Revenues have held up well, margins are expanding, FCF is stronger than (already strong) expectations, and business commentary and M&A commentary were both very bullish.
From a topline... login to read the rest | |
| 50 | |
Curious to hear your take on the print vs your expectations. | |
| 49 | |
UBS out with a buy rating and $13 PT based on 8.6x '21e Adj EBITDA of $395mm (vs Citi at 8.0x on $380mm).
They looked at things a bit differently and split comps up by Buildings... login to read the rest | |
| 48 | |
The recent CTAS call really spells out the resillience of the Fire Safety Biz. Whether buildings are occupied or not, Fire Inspection/Service/Upgrades/Repairs need to take place for buildings to keep fire insurance in place. The... login to read the rest | |
| 47 | |
Hey Jumbos02,
Thanks for the clarification. On the FCF, we feel relatively comfortable in the long-term model of ~10% of revenues = working capital (and thus the change in working capital to drag on FCF =... login to read the rest | |
| 46 | |
Chubb EBITDA margins I believe are 10 percent not operating. So that's the delta in the two EBITDA mulitples. Our Fire & Safety asset is 13.5 percent EBITDA margin and much better run ---> 13x | |
| 45 | |
Appreciate the comments. Can you talk about the bull case for Netflix...??
(joke) | |
| 43 | |
Is the only thing people can own SAAS at 40x revenue. There is a margin expansion story and this is the best run asset in the space. BX bid UTX 12-13x EBITDA for an inferior... login to read the rest | |
| 42 | |
Hey Jumbos02, thanks for the questions. Responses below:
I'm not sure where you see this, but any color on your reconciliation would be helpful. In our FCF number provided in post 19, working capital was actually... login to read the rest | |
| 40 | |
1. Produced highest backlog in company history and big bookings in q1.
2. Deemed essential service -- data centers, hospitals, water, bla bla
3. Analyst spoke to the lack of overbuild in commercial construction and quick snapback... login to read the rest | |
| 39 | |
Stock begins trading on the NYSE today. Citi out with a buy rating and $12 PT based on 8x '21e Adj EBITDA of $380mm.
Their peer group of EME, JCI, FIX, TISI, PWR, and ACM (?)... login to read the rest | |
| 38 | |
Lets not forget.. 25-30m shares will need to get bought before june 30th (russell rebalance).. thats 40 trading days. Also, UBS, CITI, and Barclays will likely initiate creating another layer of demand as well. The | |
| 37 | |
I spoke with management right before their earnings call. Nothing really incremental, they ran through in more detail with me why they think they are well positioned given geographic spread, current construction being deemed essential,... login to read the rest | |
| 36 | |
Have you spoken with management lately? Any recent updates worth noting that weren't covered in the earnings call? And have you done any further work/have a view on the rest of this year? I think the safety businesses... login to read the rest | |
| 35 | |
I think there has certainly been some decrease in the absolute upside, as there has in pretty much all industrials since COVID. But we think long-term this is still a stock that could be $20+.... login to read the rest | |
| 34 | |
I think we're on the same page - its worth low to mid double digits share price probably. My issue is I liked the upside up to $20+, which I originally agreed with you was... login to read the rest | |
| 33 | |
At the end of the day, we think that FCF is going to be the ultimate driver when it comes to this name.
We think their fire safety business, given it's high service/inspection mix, which is... login to read the rest | |