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#	AUTHOR DATE SUBJECT
43	member 4/11/23 12:57PM Re: Re: Re: Anyone following? 42
Curious if anyone still involved on the short side? Any thoughts?? Tone of Q3 23 CC was pretty negative . . . view available tags
42	member 9/18/22 2:06PM Re: Re: Anyone following? 41
Do they think they will have to give back these cumulative price/cost gains at some point? view available tags
41	member 9/18/22 1:59PM Re: Anyone following? 40
What's the short angle if you don't mind me asking? view available tags
40	member 9/16/22 7:56PM Anyone following? 39
Anyone follow and have current thoughts here? Seems like a good short set up to me. 1 view available tags
38	member 8/11/17 3:11PM Berkshire Partners and affiliate acquire substantial stake
Despite our bearish outlook on any business improvement and hesitation around Management's guidance, we have covered our short here.Berkshire Partners and an affiliate just went out and bought ~$180m worth of stock in the open... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
37	member 8/03/17 1:43PM updated thoughts on lastest "Fake" EBITDA, Gross Margin miss?
The market's reaction to this earnings miss was to sell down the stock below $19.00 -- for some reason it didn't stay there. We listened to the call and felt that there is a lot... login to read the rest view available tags
36	member 12/02/16 9:22AM Re: As DJ Khaled Says....ANOTHER ONE! 35
What's going on with this mess? Are you surprised the stock wasnt down? How could anyone own this? 2 view available tags
35	member 11/29/16 5:17PM As DJ Khaled Says....ANOTHER ONE!
Really WMS!?!? Didn't they spend significant sums supposedly getting the financials in line? Advanced Drainage Systems to Restate Prior Period Financial Statements Advanced Drainage Systems to Restate Prior Period Financial Statements Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (NYSE: WMS) (“ADS”... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
34	member 7/06/16 10:27PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Updated thoughts 33
Thanks. This one is going go to get down to whether or not they can hold price and maintain the higher gross margins. Has anyone done any diligence on this (competitor calls, customer calls) to... login to read the rest view available tags
32	member 7/04/16 6:35PM Re: Re: Re: Updated thoughts 31
Katana - one other question: how does hedging work for this company (i.e. what % of raws do they hedge and does it show up in COGS or below the line)? We are struggling to... login to read the rest view available tags
29	member 7/01/16 2:46PM Re: Re: Updated thoughts 28
Thanks Katana. Their G&A in FY16 was $187mm which included $28mm in restatement cost = $160mm normalized. However they are telling investors to expect $15-21mm/yr ($18mm mid-point) of structural higher G&A to deal with investments they... login to read the rest view available tags
27	member 7/01/16 1:53PM Updated thoughts
Has any scrubbed the FY17 guidance to get a sense of potential upside risk from raw mat deflation? Backing into it, it looks like their guidance implies ~24% gross margins. Is there any risk this... login to read the rest view available tags
26	member 6/01/16 10:13PM Re: Re: 1Q-3Q FY16 financials were released 25
It is pretty clear looking at the 1Q-3Q 10-Qs that the raw material margin benefit here is largely overstated in WMS' adjusted numbers. Thru 3Q this year, gross margin came in at 22% vs last year... login to read the rest 3 view available tags
22	member 5/27/16 12:20PM Re: Re: Re: Re: nothing smells right 21
Utah, any updated thoughts here? clearly the stock has gone on a bit of a tear in the absence of formal filings/any information at all (information vacuum helping them again). The move in raw materials... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
20	member 3/30/16 12:09PM Re: Re: nothing smells right 19
shares are not expensive to borrow either. keep going though the restated 10-k, as it is alarming... Anyhow, pro-forma market cap is $1.6bn if you dilute for the management ESOP and the schemes. This year underlying cash... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
18	member 3/30/16 11:08AM nothing smells right 17
Here is our analysis post call. We would be interested in hearing what others have to say. The beneficial factors that Management touted are mostly temporary timing issues driven by falling oil/gas costs. Despite taking this... login to read the rest 2 view available tags
17	member 3/30/16 9:58AM SEC investigation - lowered guidance - numbers appear bogus 16
Looking forward to the conference call here. We don't see how anybody can trust their numbers. At 8x new heavily adjusted EBITDA, this is a $14 stock, at best. view available tags
16	member 3/29/16 11:33PM restated 10-K finally emerges - short case improves - SEC investigation 15
as expected, declining profitability and a whole host of issues in their foreign entities. not sure how they establish credibility with their lenders and the markets. this remains a great idea. view available tags
14	member 2/23/16 4:52PM accounting control issue update - says nothing - no q&a allowed 13
Nothing new here as WMS does a Q&A-less call to assure the market that they are diligently working on makign things right. Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. Restatement Update Call February 23, 2016 Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (the... login to read the rest view available tags
13	member 2/22/16 9:38AM added to our short 12
Credit agreement pushed out even further - Company trying to buy itself time. Where there is smoke, there is fire. 2 view available tags
12	member 2/17/16 5:57PM Let's Play a Game?
I wonder what other accounting issues have been found. I bet A/R or who knows..maybe we get lucky and have some related party fun. 1 view available tags
10	member 2/04/16 9:35AM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Still no financials 9
My understanding is that in the short-run, declines of HDPE prices help because it takes time for competitors to bring down prices to compensate. Hence the theme of playing lower input costs in the coming year as view available tags
8	member 2/03/16 7:28PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Still no financials 7
I have utter disdain for the sellside as well! Just like to listen to the bull case, no matter how absurd. Roughly 60% of COGS is raw materials and of this 60%, 56% is recycled HDPE,... login to read the rest 1 view available tags
7	member 2/03/16 7:14PM Re: Re: Re: Re: Still no financials 6
I'm not following you on the ESOP shares. The diluted sharecount is 76 million. If you think adding back the non-cash vesting/awards is fine, I get it, that's okay. DB is stupid, just plain stupid. Same... login to read the rest view available tags
6	member 2/03/16 5:58PM Re: Re: Re: Still no financials 4
One follow up as well. I just spoke with the aforementioned DB analyst. Almost all the growth over the next two years is coming from input cost declines (polyethylene); i.e. something that isn't sustainable. But... login to read the rest view available tags
4	member 2/03/16 4:09PM Re: Re: Still no financials 3
Hi Utah, Thought the write-up was great and wanted to get your take on a couple things. The accounting issues are clearly troubling, but seem minor in nature. 5m impact on 2015 EBITDA (negative) and now some... login to read the rest view available tags
2	member 2/01/16 10:31AM Still no financials
The Company is suppose to file their updated financials today.....if they can't or its delayed again this is done. 1 view available tags

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			2015	2016
Price:	24.35	EPS	0	0
Shares Out. (in M):	76	P/E	0	0
Market Cap (in $M):	1,850	P/FCF	30	30
Net Debt (in $M):	400	EBIT	55	55
TEV (in $M):	2,250	TEV/EBIT	41	41
Borrow Cost:	General Collateral

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